Why White Chocolate is in Danger | The Chocolate Professor

Over the past 18 months, the price of cocoa beans and cocoa butter has risen dramatically, resulting in a widespread crisis for the chocolate industry. One of the immediate results is that white chocolate production has decreased, and the glory days of the ‘third type of chocolate’ may soon be a distant memory.

How Bad Is It?

Between December 2022 and April 2024, the commodity cocoa futures price increased 340%, from $2500 (USD) per metric ton to $11,000. The main reason for this price rise is a major shortage of supply, with cocoa crops in major cocoa-growing countries like Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire down by as much as 32% on the previous year. Crops have been impacted by a mixture of climate-related issues and cocoa tree diseases, and at the same time as this unprecedented shortage, worldwide demand for cocoa is higher than ever.

What is White Chocolate?

Dominican cocoa butter photo credit Uncommon Cacao

Almost all chocolate is impacted by the rise in cocoa price – from mass-produced industrial chocolate to micro-batch craft chocolate – but the biggest impact so far is on white chocolate. That’s because white chocolate contains 10-20 times more cocoa butter than most dark or milk chocolate, and cocoa butter has experienced an even steeper increase in price than cocoa beans.

While many large-scale industrial chocolate makers are willing to use cheap cocoa butter alternatives like vegetable oil or palm oil, world-class craft chocolate makers are unwilling to compromise on quality and flavor. “We are seeing people ratchet down the use of cocoa butter… they’re ordering smaller quantities,” says Emily Stone, Founder and CEO of Uncommon Cacao. “It’s a really existential moment for white chocolate.”

Uncommon Cacao is a ‘Transparent Trade cacao supply chain partner’, and a distributor of exceptional quality cocoa beans and butter. Between late 2023 and early 2024, the price they paid for cocoa butter tripled – increasing by $26,000 per tonne. Read more about Uncommon Cacao.

The average cocoa bean contains roughly 50% cocoa butter, with the other 50% known as ‘cocoa solids’, or cocoa powder. The beans are roasted and ground into pure cocoa liquor, which can either be turned straight into chocolate or put through a ‘cocoa press’, which separates the butter from the solids. Cocoa butter is generally in higher demand than cocoa powder, as it’s used in many cosmetic and pharmaceutical products, as well as being added to most chocolate.

The price of cocoa butter is determined not just by the price of cocoa beans, but also by the ‘cocoa butter ratio’, which accounts for how much more cocoa butter is in demand than cocoa powder. “The main thing that’s happened in cocoa butter pricing, that has led to the skyrocketing cost we’ve seen,” explains Emily, “is that, as the market prices for cocoa beans have exploded, the cocoa butter ratio has also increased substantially.”

Searching for solutions

Deniz Karaca of Cuvée Chocolate in Melbourne hasn’t just seen the price of cocoa butter dramatically increase, he’s also lost the ability to source the premium, single origin Ecuadorian cocoa butter he previously used. Distributors are now charging quadruple the price for a vastly inferior product with substandard flavor. With demand for cocoa so high and supply so low, “nobody that has quality cocoa needs to press it,” says Deniz. “The bit of butter that is still being pressed is just from whatever beans people can get their hands on.”

Karaca was faced with two choices – either stop making his cocoa butter-heavy white and milk chocolate bars or buy a cocoa press and start making his own butter. He opted for the latter, and when he contacted his local Packint rep to order the machine, he heard that two other chocolate makers in the region had recently had the same idea.

Although pressing his own cocoa butter will help him avoid paying higher prices for it, it also adds a lot of time and energy to chocolate making. “We used to order four tons of cocoa butter at a time,” says Deniz. “To make four tons, we need to process an extra 12-16 tons of beans into cocoa liquor.” And then there’s the problem of what to do with all the leftover cocoa powder…

Taste of origin

Goodnow Farms Chocolate Monica Rogan visits with cacao farmers. Photo by Tom Rogan

Goodnow Farms Chocolate in Massachusetts have been pressing their own cocoa butter since launching in 2016. “That’s how we built our company, that’s why our chocolate tastes like it does,” says Co-founder and Chocolate Maker Monica Rogan. “We freshly-press our own cocoa butter from the same beans we use for every bar.” Read more about Goodnow Farms.

Whereas most chocolate makers blend cocoa butter and cocoa beans from different places, and with different flavor profiles, pressing cocoa butter in-house makes it possible to create truly ‘single origin’ chocolate. Cheap cocoa butter is ‘deodorised’ and relatively bland, but Goodnow Farms’ freshly-pressed butter retains the beautiful flavor of the beans it comes from, which enhances the flavor of the final chocolate. Recently Rogan showcased this flavor potential with a limited edition single origin 40% white chocolate, made with cocoa directly sourced from Almendra Blanca in Mexico.

To balance the creation of multiple origins of cocoa butter, Rogan created a range of single origin hot cocoas, which blend the cocoa powder with organic sugar. These premium hot cocoas have received a plethora of awards from all over the world. “People like it,” says Monica. “It tastes exactly like the beans that it comes from.”

Uncertain future

Although pioneering chocolate makers like Karaca and Rogan have found a way to navigate the soaring cost of cocoa butter – while simultaneously improving the flavor of their bars – it’s unrealistic for every chocolate maker in the world to press cocoa butter in-house. As well as being very time-consuming and laborious, there simply aren’t enough cocoa presses in the world.

Specialty white chocolate has grown in popularity over the past 5-10 years, as craft chocolate has reached a more mainstream audience. Seasoned chocolate aficionados have also become more adventurous, and a greater variety of exceptional (and more interesting) white chocolate bars are being produced around the world. With that in mind, it’s a shame that white chocolate is now taking a backward step, with a decrease in production that is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

Emily Stone believes we will see a transitional period, as fans of both mainstream and craft chocolate adjust their expectations around prices. “Chocolate has been so undervalued for so long,” says Stone. “We’ve got used to the fact that chocolate should be really cheap, but more expensive chocolate hasn’t really been tested on a broader scale, to the point where we can say with certainty that nobody’s going to buy it.”

Even if chocolate doubled, tripled or quadrupled in price, that would arguably bring it more in line with equivalent affordable luxuries, such as wine or olive oil. When you consider the level of quality, care and craftsmanship that goes into a bar of craft chocolate, it doesn’t seem too outrageous to pay $20-$40 for some of the best in the world. Unfortunately that’s outside of some people’s budget, but it’s a price that seems more reasonable, fair and sustainable, when compared with similar delicacies.

Over time we’ll see the outcomes of this major industry upheaval, and hopefully it will result in a cocoa system that’s more viable and beneficial for everyone involved, from farmers, to makers, to consumers. But for now, white chocolate fans should make the most of what’s on offer, because you don’t know what you’ve got ‘till it’s gone. Check out some of our favorite craft white chocolate bars.